A newly released poll showed former President Donald Trump with a lead over President Joe Biden among independent voters. The new poll also corresponds with a spate of recent polls that showed Trump either ahead nationally or in important swing states.
The new Cygnal poll showed that Trump had a 6% lead among independents, who could be the deciding factor in next year’s election. The survey found that 44% of independents would back the former president and 38% would support Biden.
Furthermore, Biden is hurt when independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. is included in the poll.
Among all voters, Biden would lead Trump by 2% in a one-on-one fight. However, Biden’s lead was cut in half with Kennedy in the race. In this scenario, Biden would receive 40%, Trump would get 39% and Kennedy nabbed 12%.
In the three-way poll, Trump maintained his lead among independent voters. In that matchup, Trump would receive 36% of independents while Biden trailed with 30%. Kennedy would pick up 17%.
The Cygnal poll followed a number of other polls that showed Trump with leads, often significant ones, over Biden in key states. According to a recent New York Times/Siena poll, Trump would lead Biden in five such states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.
🇺🇲 2024 GE: @EmersonPolling (A-)
GEORGIA
Trump 49% (+8)
Biden 41%
.
PENNSYLVANIA
Trump 49% (+4)
Biden 45%
.
NEVADA
Trump 47% (+3)
Biden 44%
.
ARIZONA
Trump 46% (+2)
Biden 44%
.
WISCONSIN
Trump 45% (=)
Biden 45%
.
MICHIGAN
Biden 45% (+2)
Trump 43%4,303 LV | 10/30-11/4 | MoE:… pic.twitter.com/MbEUe5vua6
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 9, 2023
The poll found Biden with a narrow lead only in Michigan.
Similarly, recent Bloomberg/Consult and Emerson polls found similar results.
Trump currently leads the former president in a number of national polls. The current RealClearPolitics polling average found the former president with slightly more than a 1% over Biden.
While Trump’s ratings have mostly improved over the last month, Biden’s have taken a considerable decline. In the RealClearPolitics average, Trump leads in four of the five most recent polls.
In the widest lead of recent polling, a CNN survey found Trump leading the race by four points. That poll had Trump receive 49% support over Biden’s 45%.
Biden has also suffered from poor, and declining, approval ratings of late.
