Former President Donald Trump now has a lead over President Joe Biden in a potential 2024 matchup in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania. The poll result follows a string of positive surveys for the former president in his efforts to retake the White House in next year’s election.
According to a new Quinnipiac poll, Trump would best Biden in the state 47%-45%. The potential victory is partially driven by a large advantage for Trump among independent voters, whom he leads 48-30%
🇺🇲 2024 GE: PENNSYLVANIA
(R) Trump 47% (+2)
(D) Biden 45%
(R) Trump 48% (+9)
(D) Biden 39%
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 4, 2023
The same poll found that Trump led the Republican primary by almost 50%. Trump’s 61% support dwarfed his rivals. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) brought in 14% of the potential vote. Former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) was supported by 8%, while no other candidate cracked 5%.
The Wednesday poll comes after a spate of national general election and primary polls that show Trump with a lead over both his GOP challengers and Biden.
A Marquette poll released this week found Trump with a 3% lead over Biden nationwide. Trump was supported by 51% of potential voters, while Biden brought in 48%.
The Keystone State has been arguably the most important state in the last two presidential elections. The Rust Belt state saw a sharp increase in blue-collar voter participation in 2016 and 2020, including from former industrial and rural areas.
The state is disproportionately older, a key advantage that could help Trump. Some areas of the state, including Pittsburgh and Erie County have become bellwethers to determine the strength of Trump’s populist message. Furthermore, much of the state’s population lies in heavily Democratic Philadelphia.
Trump’s 2016 victory in the state effectively sealed his victory in that year’s election over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. In 2020, the race was exceedingly close through much of the counting, including an early lead for Trump through in-person balloting.
The state could be the difference in a potential race rematch between Trump and Biden next year.