Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a tight race as they head into their first debate in Philadelphia, according to a new poll that has raised concerns among some Democrats.
The NPR/PBS News/Marist National Poll, released Tuesday, shows Harris with a narrow lead of 49% to 48% among registered voters, a margin that has tightened since August when she was ahead by three points. Among those who say they are certain to vote, Harris edges out Trump by three points, 51% to 48%.
However, Trump has gained a significant advantage among independent voters, now leading Harris 49% to 46%. This marks a 14-point swing from August, when Harris had an 11-point lead while multiple candidates, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr., were still in the field.
Republican pollster Whit Ayers described the shift in independent support as a “warning sign” for the Harris campaign, noting that the initial “honeymoon period” of enthusiasm for Harris seems to be fading.
A separate New York Times/Siena poll released on Sunday also shows a dead heat, with Trump securing 48% of likely voters’ support compared to Harris’ 47%. This poll suggests that Trump has managed to retain solid support despite a surge of enthusiasm for Harris when she first entered the race.
The NPR/PBS News/Marist poll further reveals that Trump is currently leading Harris among Latino voters, 51% to 47%, a 9-point swing since August. On key issues, the poll finds that a majority of Americans believe Trump is better suited to handle immigration (53% to 46%), the economy (52% to 48%), and the Middle East (51% to 47%). Harris, however, is seen as stronger on the abortion issue, leading Trump 56% to 42%.
Republican strategist Kevin Madden told PBS News that Harris’ initial surge was like an “enormous sugar high” because she represented a new choice beyond Trump or Biden. However, Madden notes that recent polling suggests that the early excitement has waned.
“This race has snapped back to where it always was, which is a very, very close contest, amongst a very bitterly divided electorate, and that this election is going to be very, very close and it’s going to come down to a few hundred thousand voters in a handful of states,” Madden said.
