Trafalgar Chief Pollster Robert C. Cahaly recently predicted that the Republican wave will be larger than expected in the midterm elections, labeling the new group of Republican supporters as “submerged voters.”
Cahaly tweeted the prediction amid speculation that Republicans will retake majority positions in both chambers of Congress during the midterm elections.
Cahaly explained that he is basing his opinion on the reaction he is seeing from President Joe Biden’s recent rhetoric decrying MAGA Republicans as a clear danger to democracy in America.
Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified “MAGA Republicans” as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them. This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.
— Robert C. Cahaly (@RobertCahaly) September 17, 2022
“In 2016 Trump supporters were called ‘Deplorables’ and other unflattering names,” Cahaly wrote. “This was a major contributor to the ‘shy Trump voter’ phenomenon that ‘most’ polling missed which resulted in a major loss in public confidence for polling [following] the election.”
“Now that the Biden administration has essentially classified ‘MAGA Republicans’ as a threat to democracy marshaling federal law enforcement to focus on them,” he continued. “This move has created a new type of voter that will be even harder to poll or even estimate.”
“At this point I think it’s fair to say that Biden’s pursuit of and attacks on ‘MAGA Republicans’ has created an army of voters who will be virtually impossible to poll (even for us) and more difficult still to estimate,” Cahaly concluded.
On Sept. 1, Biden addressed the nation, warning that MAGA Republicans “promote authoritarian leaders and they fan the flames of political violence.”
“Donald Trump and the MAGA Republicans represent an extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic,” he stated.
According to polls conducted by FiveThirtyEight, Republicans are poised to take the House, with Democrats only having a 31 percent chance of holding on to the majority. In the Senate, however, polls show that Democrats have a 71 percent chance of maintaining control.