Former President Donald Trump has a slim advantage over Vice President Kamala Harris in three critical swing states, according to polling released Monday by the New York Times.
Trump is ahead of Harris by five points — 50%-45% — in Arizona. He also is ahead in Georgia, where he holds a 49%-45% edge. In North Carolina, though, the race between Trump and Harris is much closer with Trump at 49% and Harris at just 47%.
The poll sampled 2,077 likely voters in the 3 states from September 17-21.
In 2020 these were two states previously voting Republican but which in 2024 will again be key, because President Biden won both Arizona and Georgia with their vote. The change in Arizona is perhaps the most striking: an August New York Times poll had Harris up by five points here, now it’s Trump ahead.
Shortly before the Times survey, a separate national poll by Fox News showed Harris leading Trump 50%-48%. This represents a 3-point shift toward her since the August 14 poll showed Trump up by a point.
This sea change in polling came after a whirlwind political week. This was the Democratic National Convention when Robert F. Kennedy Jr. abandoned his long-shot candidacy and then endorsed Trump, when former Vice President Dick Cheney-and his former daughter in law, Congresswoman Liz Cheney-supported Harris. The two candidates also went head-to-head in a debate, and during the survey week a second attempt was made on Trump’s life.
But even as the poll numbers have moved against Trump, many Republicans public and private — including some of those who work on nothing but electoral data every cycle instrumentally continue to view his prospects more positively.
Baris’ projection of a margin of up to 3 points in the popular vote but a Trump loss was amplified by Republican pollsters Daron Shaw and Chris Anderson, who conduct Fox News surveys. “Our best estimates are that if Trump is within 2 points of Harris nationally then he will likely win in the Electoral College,” they wrote on Sunday. Indeed, the indication of an advantage for Trump in these data from the key counties and battleground states is consistent with that.
The competition between Trump and Harris remains neck-and-neck in many states, as each seeks key swing state wins.