In a surprising turn, former President Donald Trump has lost his lead in Georgia and North Carolina, according to the latest Fox News Power Rankings. This shift gives Vice President Kamala Harris an edge in the overall forecast for the first time. Despite this change, the election remains highly competitive, with six toss-up states representing a total of 78 electoral votes still in play.
Debate watchers have declared Harris the winner of Tuesday’s presidential debate. A CNN flash poll conducted immediately after the debate found that 63% of viewers thought Harris performed better, compared to 37% for Trump.
Trump drew attention with controversial statements about migrants and his rally sizes, while Harris stayed focused on issues and reached out to moderate voters. However, experts suggest it will take several weeks to see the debate’s true impact on the election.
Historically, polling shifts following debates in the Trump era have been modest. For instance, a poor performance by President Biden in a debate last June only cost him two points in major polls. Similarly, Trump saw a one-point drop after being criticized for his behavior in the first 2020 debate, while Biden’s support remained steady after a more evenly matched second debate.
Even slight changes in polls, such as a point or two, can be critical in a race that could be decided by just a few thousand votes.
The national race is extremely close, with Trump’s support remaining stable despite a tumultuous news cycle. Over the past year, Fox News Polls have consistently shown 48-50% of registered voters supporting Trump. Factors such as criminal indictments, a conviction, primary challenges, a last-minute opponent switch, and even an assassination attempt have not significantly affected Trump’s support.
While Trump has not gained ground, he also has not lost it, keeping him highly competitive. Meanwhile, the Democrats have seen some improvement: Harris is now just one point behind Trump at 49% in the latest Fox national survey.
Harris is also making gains in key battleground states. Georgia and North Carolina, which were the closest victories for Biden and Trump, respectively, in 2020, are proving competitive once again. Recent polls show Harris leading Trump in some surveys, while others indicate a very tight race.
Georgia has traditionally favored Democrats in metropolitan areas, while Republicans dominate rural regions. Harris has focused her campaign on narrowing these margins, starting a bus tour in Savannah last month. Similarly, North Carolina has grown more competitive as its population has increased, particularly in suburban areas, making Republican victories less certain.
The updated Fox News Power Rankings show that Harris leads with 241 electoral votes, while Trump has 219, following Georgia and North Carolina’s shift to toss-up status. This leaves 78 electoral votes available across six battleground states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
Past elections have shown that these closely contested states often swing together. In 2016, Trump won seven of eight battlegrounds, while Biden flipped six of them in 2020. This year, the addition of ballot measures on abortion rights in Arizona and Nevada could make these states unpredictable.
Both candidates will need to win the majority of these toss-up states to reach the necessary 270 electoral votes. A clean sweep of the six toss-up states would give Harris 319 electoral votes, while Trump would reach 297 with the same wins.
With less than eight weeks remaining until Election Day, early voting is set to begin soon. A debate between vice presidential candidates Gov. Tim Walz and Sen. JD Vance is scheduled for October 1, with another Harris-Trump debate proposed for later that month.
The race remains highly competitive, with both candidates still having a path to victory.
