President Biden has been doing his best to escalate tensions between the United States and Russia with numerous statements that keep having to get walked back by the White House. Apparently, Poland wanted to get in on the fun; Poland’s Deputy Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski was just quoted as saying that his country would happily let the United States park some nukes in Poland.
On its face, there does not seem to be any strategic advantage to having missiles in Poland, given that the United States has already had nuclear weapons stationed in different NATO countries for decades. Everyone has settled in comfortably with this arrangement and the deployments have become the accepted status quo.
Whenever you are dealing with nuclear weapons, keeping the status quo is good. By definition, the status quo is stable. Stability is important when you are dealing with weapons that can annihilate all of humankind. Poland mixing it up by offering their country as a new missile base destabilizes the nuclear power balance. Putin has said on the record that one of the reasons he invaded Ukraine was because of the West pushing NATO boundaries toward his border.
How do you think Putin would react if you started putting nukes on his border? The answer has already been answered in his previous statements. Russia will put nuclear weapons in countries like Venezuela — countries close to U.S. borders. Is that a security situation the U.S. is willing to accept?
It is understandable that the West wants to put pressure on Russia to counter its invasion. What is not understandable is why the Biden administration and its NATO partners are raising the temperature on things that make no strategic sense and are not in our national interest.
No one wants nukes in Poland. But now the Russians must take that into account when figuring out what to do about Ukraine. What if they decide to continue to Poland, who they now see as a possible nuclear threat?
As unlikely as it sounds, it still must be contemplated. The more options your adversary must evaluate the more likely it is they will make a mistake because the stakes are so high. Everyone should be extremely circumspect with their choice of words now. We need sober leadership to guide us through this time. Unfortunately, we have Joe Biden.