A recent poll showed that a majority of citizens of swing states said that they would not vote for President Joe Biden in November. The poll also comes after a series of other surveys showed former President Donald Trump in the lead both nationally and in a number of swing states.
The most recent New York Times/Siena/Philadelphia Inquirer poll asked voters in crucial swing states whether or not they would vote for Biden. The average of Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin found that 52% said that there was “not really any chance” that Biden could earn their vote.
Another 4% said that there was “some chance” that they would cast a ballot for the former president. A further 2% said that they did not know.
In addition, the president was trailing Trump in five of the six states among registered voters. He is also trailing among likely voters in five of the six.
In Michigan, the former president is leading by 7% among registered voters while Biden was leading by 1% among likely voters. In Wisconsin, Biden led there by 2% among registered voters but trailed Trump by 1% among likely voters.
Recent polling has shown a significant decline in support for the president, including among different demographic groups that backed him four years ago. Biden’s ratings with Black, Latino, Muslim and young voters have declined significantly.
POLL ANALYSIS: In the six critical swing states — AZ, GA, MI, NV, PA, and WI — Joe Biden's lead among Hispanics is just +3 over Donald Trump.
To put this number in context, these were Biden's 2020 margins in the same states:
AZ: +24
GA: +25
MI: +11
NV: +26
PA: +42
WI: +23 https://t.co/eYac0GgShu pic.twitter.com/FnY50TEeEf— Giancarlo Sopo (@GiancarloSopo) May 14, 2024
Of of the largest shifts has come from Latino voters, who may ultimately decide the fate of states such as Nevada, Georgia and Arizona. The former president ranked 3% above Trump in an average of those states and Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In 2020 he led among the demographic group by double digits in each state.
The largest such lead was Pennsylvania, where he led by 42%. In Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Wisconsin Biden’s lead was more than 20%.
The polling underscores issues that Biden has had with keeping his 2020 coalition together for another election.
