After President Biden withdrew from the Democratic nomination for November’s election, a new poll by The Wall Street Journal shows Vice President Kamala Harris in a neck-and-neck race with former president Donald Trump.
Democratic pollster Mike Bocian, who conducted the survey with Republican pollster David Lee, said that just 37% of Biden supporters were excited about him early July – compared to now when only 81% of Harris backers.
Trump edges Harris 2 percentage points in a two-way contest, close to the Journal’s error margin of 3.1%, indicating that she has cut into what had been a six-point advantage for Trump over President Biden before he dropped out of the race last weekend.
Once Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and other independent & third party candidates are included, Trump leads Harris by only 1% with a tally of 45%-44%. And this change is partly due to how Harris seems a likely Democratic turnout driver for sheer demographics relating to voter enthusiasm and energy within the base.
After Harris announced her run as Biden’s replacement, Harris reportedly raised $100 million from over 1.1 million unique donors between Sunday afternoon and Monday evening, what is now being called the “largest 24-hour raise in presidential history” by other Democrats familiar with Harris’ figure release.
The poll also has good news for Trump. Trump was down nine points to Biden in the Journal poll taken last month, an opponent who pleaded with staying-at-home Americans not to send that guy back.
“Donald Trump is in a far better position in this election when compared to a similar time in the 2020 election,” Lee told the Journal.
“Instead of what was shaping up to be a Trump win, America has a real, bona fide race on its hands,” veteran political scientist Wayne Lesperance said this week. “Game on.”
Trump has mostly led in Electoral College projections even when national polls are tied due to “the way the country’s population is dispersed,” according to the Journal. But Harris has not picked a running mate, as possible selections like Governor Tim Walz (D-MN) and Senator Mark Kelly (D-AR) would greatly affect the numbers.
Harris is also barely ahead of Trump in Michigan, according to a Fox news poll released Friday that showed Harris at 44% and the president with 41%, as compared Sunday to Biden garnering only one percentage point more than Trump’s total.
The poll also underscores demographic divides: men prefer Trump by 13 points, while women back Harris by 12. Trump leads by two points among voters 45 and older, while Harris is up five with younger voters.
In the College Battleground Poll, Trump receives 40% of White voters without a college degree to Harris’ 55%, but she leads among Whites with a degree by three points and is backed among people of color more widely than all other candidates (by +39) in this poll.
Polls by Fox News in battleground states also find Trump matching or outperforming his 2020 vote share against Harris in a head-to-head race, while advancing with voters focused on the economy and immigration. Voters for whom abortion is a top issue favor Harris.
In every state except for Michigan, where they are tied, Harris also holds a favorable rating compared to the less positively viewed Trump.
