Steve Kornacki, MSNBC political analyst, says even though Trump trails Vice President Kamala Harris in current polling, he’s better off than the last few cycles.
Trump was 3 points behind Harris when Kornacki spoke Tuesday — but the newsman reminded viewers that in past campaigns, Trump had rallied from larger deficits.
Kornacki said: “If you are a Republican, looking at this poll average coming out of Labor Day, you could take some solace too, because Donald Trump is no stranger to this position, being behind come Labor Day in a presidential election.”
Harris also beats Trump in a national polling average, 48% to 45%, with around two months until Election Day.
As Kornacki underscored, “Back in 2016, on average, he was down by five points against Hillary Clinton coming out of Labor Day. Of course, Trump won in 2016. In 2020, on average, he was trailing Joe Biden by an even wider margin. And yet didn’t come back to win, but he came back to come close, Trump did, in the Electoral College.”
Kornacki also suggested Trump’s position right now might actually be stronger than it seems.
“Certainly, from Trump’s standpoint here, to be down three points that might look better than the last two times did,” he continued.
Democrats could take heart in Harris’s lead, Kornacki also noted, especially when looking at it relative to Biden’s standing before he dropped out of the race.
Even CNN data analyst Henry Enten wrote today in a tweet that he believes Trump, who tends to poll worse compared with reality due to factors like social desirability bias from certain polls’ respondents.
“The bottom line is this: If you have any idea – if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it. Donald Trump is very much in this race. If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win. I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but I am saying that he is very much in this ballgame based upon where he is right now, and compare that to where he was in prior years,” Enten said.
Adding to the debate, polling expert Nate Silver went on Fox News last month and said “the polls have been wrong before” in general elections over Trump’s showing. He also stressed that the November presidential election was a long way off, and there would be plenty of more surprises.
Though Harris holds a small lead in the race as it currently stands, Kornacki warned not to get too far ahead of things.
“One, we have three more months to go. There will be more surprises. And two, the polls have been wrong before. In both the last two general elections, they underestimated Trump,” he said.
