President Joe Biden won the Michigan primary on Tuesday, which was expected by a series of polls. However, the non-Biden vote in the primary was unusually strong, indicating possible electoral issues for the president in November.
Biden won the primary with a significant portion of voters casting ballots for ‘uncommitted.’ Separately, Trump defeated former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley (R) in the Republican primary.
So far, roughly 21,200 people have voted uncommitted Democratic ballots — outstripping organizers' 10,000-vote goal.
From what I can tell, that is with few to no votes added yet from Wayne County, let alone Dearborn. https://t.co/qJnhUmJOXa
— Beth LeBlanc (@DNBethLeBlanc) February 28, 2024
Biden narrowly carried Michigan in 2020. Four years earlier, Trump won the state over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
The primary results could show several fundamental weaknesses in Biden’s approach. First, was the margin of Trump’s victories over Haley in areas dominated by blue-collar workers. These areas often supported Trump and 40 years ago former President Ronald Reagan.
In a state with a large number of current and former industrial workers and their families, these “Reagan Democrats” could play a major role in whether or not Trump can win the state.
Secondly, Biden’s total in areas that are majority Black could represent potential electoral weakness. Biden would need a large turnout and margin among Michigan’s Black voters to win the state. However, the weaker-than-expected results could indicate that Biden has lost ground among Black voters as he has in national polls.
Furthermore, Biden appears to show particular weakness among Muslim-Americans. This demographic group voted heavily in favor of Biden four years ago. Muslim-Americans make up a small but electorally significant part of Michigan’s population.
Left-wing media has supported the idea of uncommitted votes representing defiance of Biden.
Biden has lost considerable support among Muslim-Americans nationwide since the start of the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Some Muslim leaders accused Biden of being too pro-Israel and vowed to either vote third-party or even for Trump.
Biden campaign officials met with both Arab-American and Muslim-American officials to try and patch up the increasing rift earlier this month. Despite this, the Michigan leaders said that Biden must stop American aid for Israel and seek a permanent cease-fire.
There is also a difference in opinion on LGBT issues. Last year, an all-Muslim-American city council barred the use of LGBT flags on public property. The city council is comprised entirely of Democrats.
A relatively small shift among Muslim or Black Americans could mean that Trump could win the crucial swing state in November.
