Analysts from the non-partisan Cook Political Report have moved the rating for ten races in the House of Representatives in favor of the Republican candidates just one week before the November 8 midterm elections.
In their report, Cook Political explained that several congressional districts that President Joe Biden comfortably won during the 2020 presidential election are now at risk of being lost to the GOP because Democrat governors are underperforming. Comparatively, Republicans are surging as they focus their efforts and campaign messaging on high crime and record-high inflation.
The ten districts whose ratings were changed by Cook are:
- Rep. Josh Harder (D-CA), California’s 9th Congressional District, was moved from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
- Rep. Julia Brownley (D-CA), California’s 26th Congressional District, was moved from “Solid Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
- Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA), California’s 49th Congressional District, was moved from “Leans Democrat” to “Toss-up.”
- Rep. Sean Casten (D-IL), Illinois’s 6th Congressional District, was moved from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
- Rep. Lauren Underwood (D-IL), Illinois’ 14th Congressional District, was moved from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
- Rep. Andy Kim (D-NJ), New Jersey’s 3rd Congressional District, was moved from “Likely Democrat” to “Lean Democrat.”
- New York’s 3rd Congressional District, an open seat currently held by a Democrat, was moved from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-up.”
- New York’s 4th Congressional District, an open seat currently held by a Democrat, was moved from “Lean Democrat” to “Toss-up.”
- Rep. Joe Morelle (D-NY), New York’s 25th Congressional District, was moved from “Solid Democrat” to “Likely Democrat.”
- Oregon’s 5th Congressional District, an open seat currently held by a Democrat, was moved from “Toss-up” to “Lean Republican.”
🚨 Cook Political House rating changes
✅ 10 blue state districts move in Republicans' direction pic.twitter.com/YOLedL3AiE
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 1, 2022
Cook Political also noted in the analysis that some open seats allowed Republicans to “remain closer to spending parity” — adding that all of the open seats are in states in which Republican gubernatorial candidates are surging, which helps the down-ballot races.
According to Cook Political, some of the seat shifts — Harder, Porter, Casten, Underwood, and Kim — are caused in part by the redistricting process, which has given them a district with over 45% of the voters being new. Brownley and Morelle received even weaker districts following redistricting.
Cook Political’s most recent round of changes leaves the map with 212 seats rated at least “Lean Republican,” 188 seats rated at least “Lean Democrat,” and 35 rated a “Toss-up.”
Breitbart News noted in their reporting on the issue that, “With this, if the House Republicans can win all of the ‘Lean,’ ‘Likely,’ and ‘Solid’ Republican races, the party would only need to win six of the ‘Toss-up’ races to regain the majority in the House. That is compared to the Democrats needing to win 29 of the 35 ‘Toss-up’ races to stay in the majority. Overall, Cook Political says the Republicans would gain between 12 and 25 seats.”
Democrats have continued to lose momentum as the U.S. heads towards the November 8 midterm elections, while Republicans have gained an edge in the polls. While Democrats have focused their campaigns on abortion and “threats to democracy,” Republicans have centered their messaging around crime and economic issues that affect average Americans.
